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Many financial industry analysts are bearish on the oil industry right now. I’m not sure they’re right, as I note below, but I also think it’s important to recognize that financial market impact of oil price fluctuations is not the only impact U.S. oil production has on markets generally.

One thing I want to make clear at the outset, though, is that I am not a financial analyst, or an economist (as I have previously noted). My comments here are reactions to things analysts are saying based on my experience researching U.S. shale oil markets and activity, as well as the U.S. transportation sector in recent years.  My thoughts are related to my expectations for how I think the companies and people in the industry are likely to react, and reflect my hope that financial market changes don’t negatively impact other essential planning, in areas related to health, safety, and the environment, the industry desperately needs.

Back to the market predictions:  Goldman Sachs and some other analysts see the oil sector as over saturated and anticipate continued supply gluts to keep prices down.  According to a report from Goldman analysts, U.S. price indicator West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude will fall…

Today marked the first day of several meeting with people from North Dakota to discuss the oil boom and how it has impacted the state.  I lived in the state, and I loved it, so I think I am a little more connected than many to what’s happened here.  That said, I lived on the other side of the state from the oil boom, and I only spent five (largely great) years in North Dakota, so while I’m informed, I have hardly “lived the boom.”  I’ve just been watching and trying to pay attention. 

A few things I was told tonight struck me as significant: 

1. Housing costs are still a huge issue. Building a new house in Dickinson can run upwards of $250 per square foot. A one-bedroom apartment can easily run $1300.

2. In 1997, there were 698 hotel rooms in the city, largely for tourism jumping off for the North Dakota Badlands.  By 2004, that number was 754.  As of 2013, that number has increased to 1632. (The number is true of 2014, too.) 

3. In 2005, the average daily rate for a hotel room was $53.96

By 2008: $68.95

2009: $75.57

2010: $87.59

2011: $109.52

2012 :$124.03…

I’m currently flying at about 30,000 feet on my way to Dickinson, North Dakota.  Regular readers know I do much of my research in the energy sector and that the impacts of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing have had on the local, regional, national, and global economies are an interest of mine.  This trip marks my first return to North Dakota since I left the University of North Dakota School of Law in the summer of 2012, and it will be my most extended trip to the Bakken oil patch in the western part of the state. 

I have the benefit of traveling with a group from West Virginia University, and we’re gathering information for a variety of applications, all of which I hope will help us plan for a more sustainable economic and environmentally viable energy future.  The trip is scheduled to include meetings with government officials (state and local), industry representatives, landowners, farmers, educators, and others.  I’m looking forward to this rare opportunity to hear so many different perspectives from people living in the heart of the U.S. oil boom. 

Over the last few years, I have written about the challenges and opportunities related to the shale oil and…