One of the most complex issues in Section 10(b) litigation concerns loss causation, i.e., the question whether the fraud ultimately resulted in a loss to the plaintiffs.
The reason loss causation is so complex is because companies rarely simply admit to wrongdoing, out of the blue. Most of the time, the “truth” behind the fraud – whatever that truth may be – is revealed gradually or indirectly. The first revelations concerning an accounting fraud, for example, might simply be a drop in earnings, as the company tries to “make up” for past premature revenue recognition without admitting to wrongdoing. A company might announce a slowdown in product sales without ever admitting that it had previously lied about the product’s features. A key officer might resign without explanation. And very often, the first rumblings of a problem come from the announcement of a government investigation – without any further details – that may or may not ultimately culminate in an enforcement action.
In response to any of these announcements, the company might experience a stock price drop, even though the market either is unaware of the possibility of fraud or uncertain as to whether a fraud exists and/or its scope. In such situations, can the fraud be said to have “caused” a loss?
In a pair of decisions by the Fifth and Ninth Circuits, it appears that whether such early warning signals constitute “loss causation” depends very much on what happened later.
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